I Was Wrong!
Yea, I know shocking right. I do not recall being wrong ever. 🙂
I wrote It’s 2032 And You Were So Very Very Wrong in February 2012.
I took a look twenty years into the future and set out to define the state of commercial real estate.
It’s now just three (3) years later and we are already experiencing what I call “Exponential Progress.” ( Google it.)
In those three short years let’s compare how far my mind and possibly yours has had the chance to EXPAND.
Let’s compare what I thought was so far away technically that we could only speculate about what commercial real estate would be and let’s look at it through today’s eyes.
2032: Brokerage as we know it no longer exists. The corporate and legal style business models now rule. Building their base thru the bust and accelerating thru the booms to dominate. Survival of the fittest and clinging to the survival of an outdated industry.
2015: This one is still too far out to call. I have seen the structure of brokerage bending, but not enough to shake the earth just yet.
2032: Data is a simple commodity. The big data for pay model seems like asking someone to carry a land line phone around and plug it in to send and receive calls.
2015: I’m already calling this one TODAY! API API API and then some. The fact that I thought this would take twenty years to happen is embarrassing.
2032: Data standards are recognized as the norm and are the same for every commercial property in the world.
2015: I can name at least five companies who have almost every property in every major market in the world in a database. Yes, most of that is public or government data but, it’s a standard set of data that is used everyday. How much farther do we need to go? Not too far.
2032: Geolocating and BIM are the standard data set and the updating of that data by the nano second is the real commodity.
2015: I’m calling this in five years or less. Talk about exponential.
2032: The data created by commercial real estate is now more valuable than the actual structures themselves. Reread that.
2015: ” I want to be the landlord of that data.” Duke Long 2012
2032: The patent lawsuits are old news and the curators no longer rule. The patent of commercial real estate data to a specific brand saved many a corporate brand.
2015: Data patents for commercial real estate brands. CBRE, DTZ, JLL, Blackstone, Co-Star (Now, I have your undivided attention.)
2032: The dollars generated from enterprise and consumer apps has evolved to more of collaboration and sharing model for the corporate real estate brands.
2015: Just think of the business models and the money that could be made. There are already conversations happening right now. Do I have to think of everything?
2032: The public and corporate side of what they use to call the “cloud” is now a battle ground of failing and antiquated services. The need to hold onto these services are irrelevant.
2015: Why worry about the “cloud” when you should paying more attention to your own “consciousness.” (Kurzweil)
2032: Machine learning is not only a given it is mainstream and threatens to take over the structure of commercial real estate. Damn I should have bought IBM stock!
2015: Why rely on machines? They will only make “things.” What will a “commercial space” be?
2032: Tablets, Location, NFC, Verbal and Immersive UX gone. Human Interaction, Authorization and Engagement is Commercial Real Estate.
2015: Anywhere you exist can and will be a commercial space?
2032: Personal Mobile Computers (PMC) are like fashion accessories and the peripherals help create the experience for commercial real estate.
2015: Fun and playful for now. A waste of time materials and effort in five years or less.
2032: Personal Reality (total immersion) replaces Augmented Reality. The experience is the reality.
2015: Dead on and coming way faster than anyone thought. How about right now!
2032: Moore’s Law. Dead on still.
2015: Do the math!
2032: The “community” of commercial real estate touches all things business. Helping create a transaction has no value. Creating “community” is the only value.
2015: Think of the people who do not want to own cars or houses. Think of the way that people will interact and “work” or collaborate in the future. A transaction is just a catalyst. It’s a catalyst for what? What if that transaction or what we call a transaction today changes or goes away forever?
Does any of this seem unrealistic to you?
This is only 3 years further down the line.
What about 3 years from now. 2018.
It’s not that far away.
Updated and Accelerated 2032. Exponential Progress. (Duke’s Rule of 14)
+1 What happens when it decides to kick back?