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It’s 2032 And You Were So Very Very Wrong.

Hal2032

What will the state of commercial real estate be in 2032?

What if someone had asked you the same question back in1992? What will be the state of commercial real estate in 2012? What would your answer have been?

Business Evolution Occurs Over Time………Maybe Not Anymore!

Commercial Real Estate 2032. The Reality.

Brokerage as we no it no longer exists. The corporate and legal style business models now rule. Building their base thru the bust and accelerating thru the booms to dominate.Survival of the fittest and clinging to the survival of an outdated industry.

Data is a simple commodity.The big data for pay model seems like asking someone to carry a land line phone around and plug it in to send and receive calls.

Data standards are recognized as the norm and are the same for every commercial property in the world.

Geolocating and BIM are the standard data set and the updating of that data by the nano second is the real commodity.

The data created buy commercial real estate is now more valuable than the actual structures themselves. Reread that.

The patent lawsuits are old news and the curators no longer rule. The patent of commercial real estate data to a specific brand saved many a corporate brand.

The dollars generated from enterprise and consumer apps has evloved to more of collaboration and sharing model for the corporate real estate brands.

The public and corporate side of what they use to call the “cloud” is now a battle ground of failing and antiquated services.The need to hold onto these services are irrelevant.

Machine learning is not only a given it is mainstream and threatens to take over the structure of commercial real estate.Damn I should have bought IBM stock!

Tablets,Location,NFC,Verbal and Immersive UX gone. Human Interaction,Authorization and Engagement is Commercial Real Estate.

Personal Mobile Computers (PMC) are like fashion accessories and the peripherals help create the experience  for commercial real estate.Look thru your glasses and the restaurant glows blue. That’s a positive sign from previous patrons and for commercial real estate.

Personal Reality(total immersion) replaces Augmented Reality.The experience is the reality.

Moore’s Law. Dead on still.

Remember Google,Apple,R.I.M.,Nokia HP,Microsoft? I don’t either. Remember the Pad thing Apple use to sell? Kodak was one of the most admired and profitable companies. I’ve heard the museum they have is nice.

The “community” of commercial real estate touches all things business.Helping create a transaction has no value. Creating “community” is the only value.

Commercial Real Estate 2012-2032

I will be around in 2032. Who will hold me accountable for these predictions? Who thinks there is no chance in hell these will even remotely become reality? Your 25-30-35-40 years old. Go ahead and take that chance and be very very wrong! Thoughts?

 

 

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  • Jerry Porter

    Duke,

    Always thought-provoking – well done! There’s no doubt that the business model for brokerage is changing every day. Data is already ubiquitous, but generating good information requires some amount of brain power. Maybe we’ll still have a role. Are those sunglasses of yours already PMC monitors?

    Jerry

    • Jerry,
      Why yes Ray-Ban makes them just for me 🙂

  • Peter Drake

    Duke

    Very thought provoking but not that far from reality except it is going to happen faster than you think. In other sectors we see major changes driven by the “Internet of Things” or “chips with everything”. You should hear Gary Atkinson embedded systems director at ARM Holdings and previously at Intel talking about 50cent chips being embedded everywhere (next 5 years). Imagine managing building operational costs, carbon reduction, security on-line via the cloud and at the same time in realtime automatically having the option to re-value a particular building or lease at the click of browser field to give you cutting edge in closing a lease deal.

    This of course will only work if our information systems can collect, analysis and control the potential vast amounts of data and present it in an easy way for occupiers, agents etc. Since this is a covergence of many different sets of data from different groups e.g. surveyors, facility manager, lawyers, agents, energy, office services, security services etc then we need to ensure that there is harmonisation of data. OSCRE is building a data dictionary of terms and schemas of information for use by our members – equally we are working with other organisations such as BOMA, IFMA, RICS and OGC to make information seamless. It is a long haul since the industry is very fragmented. However, for existing members to take advantage of global opportunities it is the only sensible approach to what you have already described.

    Finally it was Vint Cerf Father of the Internet who said “around about 2000 for the first time ever technology over took peoples ability to keep up with it. The issues are now not about technology but about people’s adaptability to make use of technology”.

    Since taking over as CEO of OSCRE I see that this statement doubly applies to the Real Estate Industry and that some serious strategic thinking is needed to bring us into the 21st Century

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