I Rant Because I Can. I Rant Because I Want To. I Rant Because That’s What YOU Want!

Ah, what a time to be alive…or what a time to be alive and watch the shitshow that is life as we know it today. I’m more on the side of not paying any attention to that made up drama that is the shitshow of life and have been hanging on to the phrase lately of “Livin The Dream.” What does that actually mean? Hell if I know but then again why the hell not.

Are we all now too sensitive to anything and everything and all we want is to be affirmed about our beliefs and not to have our minds changed at all? I get that, but the other side wants the same so how will that work? And some of us can’t or won’t have it any other way.

October is one of my favorite months of the year. What other holiday do you not in anyway need to see any relatives, everywhere you look there is free candy and you and your bro can dress up like Jim Carrey and Jeff Daniels in Dumb and Dumber, act like complete idiots and everyone thinks it hilarious? Not to mention football the Ryder Cup (not so much if you are from the US, just hit a fucking fairway for once.) and all the fall colors. Did I mention free candy?

Institutional money is now dominating commercial real estate and tech. Does Softbank do anything that doesn’t have a billion dollars attached to it? I said it a few years ago, “what happens when all the people with all the money and all the buildings show up?” Here’s an interesting question, who buys all these hot start-ups that all the VC’s are investing in? The people with all the money and buildings? Or…are they already buying them up before they even get there? My simple prediction? There will be three or four consolidated platforms that will emerge and dominate. Who will own them? The people with all the money and all the buildings! Simple!

The blockchain is dying and or dead (BTW cannabis is “LIT”) or is it just now starting to build into something significant? Where are the screamers now? The market tanks and they just fade away back to the basement from which they came. If blockchain was the shit do you not think that Blackstone or Brookfield or Hines or somebody like that would be all over it. They may still be but they will get in when? When it will fucking MAKE THEM MONEY! Go ahead save the world, decentralize the…wait you already pitched that shit and it did not work…back to square one or maybe you are smart enough to shut the fuck up and build something somebody will use. Or not. There are some that say when the market goes to hell that’s when blockchain will shine. Really? When the market goes to hell do you think everyone will focus on magic internet beans or maybe focus on real shit like jobs, hard assets, and real dollars?

Scale is the biggest issue with CRE and tech. I’ve had this conversation a bunch recently. Let me frame this out for you. You are sitting in front of someone who can hand you access to 1000 buildings. What do you do with it? Well, of course, you say we can…we will…we are…no you are not. NO, YOU ARE NOT. You have NO fucking clue what it takes to get there. Oh yes, I hear you, if you had millions with millions and millions and a huge team and enough time….no that’s not how it fucking works…wait maybe that it is how it works. How do you get there? Figure that out, that’s called creating scale. Scale = success. Scale is product fit + time + team + money + execution. Hell, that was easy to figure out was it not. Then go do it and quit giving me excuses why you can’t or won’t…other than the fact you are lazy and really just want to make fast money and buy a boat, or an E-Team, which is just even more fucked up! Yes, someone actually said that to me, an E-Team.

Amazon is now getting into prefab homes all under the guise of “managing” a household. Did they just say fuck it to #CRE? I think they did. Think of helping them with the last mile? UPS, FedEx, and all the others are competing with them and so are you. They just leapfrogged over us all and are sitting right in your living room. How does #CRE get there? They don’t!

Let me simply lay out the Amazon thing for you and let me use shoes as an example. You are sitting in your house and ask Alexa to show you the shoes you have been looking at online for sale. It pops up on your TV screen. You tell Alexa to buy the black pair. It responds with a confirmation. That order is sent to a warehouse owned by Amazon. It gets placed on a truck owned by Amazon and delivered to your house by a driver employed by Amazon. Do you get it? How may spaces places and people are eliminated with that one purchase? How much $$ is that for Amazon? How many $$ is that NOT going to anyone else? The percentage on Online e-commerce sales for 2018 is 10% and it’s only going to grow. You say “well Amazon is opening bricks and mortar stores because physical retail matters.” Yes, ok maybe but they own all of it. Also, they are doing it without any humans in the stores. It’s only going to grow and grow and grow and grow. Whoever owns the entire transaction….. wins! Hey what if you owned the entire #CRE transaction…wait I digress…or I don’t digress as I have said it a fucking million times!!!

BUT, you won’t own it because you are too busy trying to be UPS or FedEx which provides the service. Do I need to repeat that? Need more context? Just In case you missed this little gem I wrote in 2017.     It just might help you ease the pain..unless you drink it away in denial. Always here to help.

New York rant..or not. The food is so good here. Seriously it’s hard to find bad food, yes it’s expensive but that is, of course, relative and I’m not talking about the hummus/kale/hummus/pita/avocado toast places. How many of those trash food places can there be? I want to die from too much pie. They say that eating well adds ten years to your life. What ten years are we talking about. 80-90? The years some poor human has to follow me around with a bedpan? Or check each morning to see if I’m breathing just to decide if the sheets need to be changed? NOT ME. I’m in my PRIME. Bring on the BBQ and the Lemon Pound cake. Hell, live a little, Fuck Instagram likes and shit. Be real. What do these people eat? Do they take a twig and wave it through a special hummus flavored air chamber and then lick it? FUCK THAT. (As a side rant to the rant. I saw MEN yes MEN standing on their toes to wait… I have to retype that just to take it all in…grown ass men standing on their toes to take a picture…is that suppose to do what, make you look taller, make your ass seem what, assier…? WTF is wrong with these people?)You are a grown ass man! Or maybe not!

The conference season is upon us. Panels doing panels with a panel doing Paneling. Yes, I had an opinion about that too. My goal this year during this season is not to inform and educate, it’s to promote all the old gray-haired blue suited white guys. They need all the help they can get. My goal is to get three out of every four people on a panel to be white, male old and gray. Come on people let’s get behind a cause we can all agree it needs more and more attention, they have so much more to give to the industry!#JustUsWhiteGuys

This Global #CRE #Prop #Tech thing is awesome. That’s all, just awesome. So many amazing people and please will someone ask me to come to Hong Kong. Why? I have not been there so, why not, besides it gets me to China which is just quietly (if that’s at all possible ) killing it with #Proptech.

BTW London was..amazing…Paris can only be described as…divine…Vienna…we shall see…Helsinki…probably cold but who cares! And I’m already committed for more next year!!!

Referencing back to my last rant a few months ago…my putter is still in need of any and all help you can give..it was a so-so year with the flat stick. My driving came around and my iron play was a strength. My short game needs a critical care unit. Not sure why that information is in a #CRE rant other than it just makes me feel better. (Shout Out To The BEEBZ) MORE GOLF PEOPLE! #TeeItHighLetItFly.

Another small shoutout to just two people and when they read this they will know it’s just for them. My Hair Is GLORIOOOOUUUUSSS! Deal with it, people!

Coworking has been all on the quiet or are they just grinding and gaining market share. The “it must be a pyramid scheme”  narrative has or should have gone away at this point or did the Billions of $$$ raised just shut everyone up? Big $$$ owners now getting in. They own the buildings and have $$$. Sensing a theme yet? So the end result will be?

Sensors are the new blockchain. Everyone has sensors, everyone loves sensors, everyone wants to use everyone’s sensors, BUT no one uses sensors for anything important YET! We are getting there. Here’s a little insider tip. The super-secret most underrated old school tech in use now and might be the most imprtant tech in the next 5 years? BMS and EMS. Don’t know what that is? Look it up. Keep up, people!

AI.

AI.

And then again AI.

AI will change the world and it will do it faster than you think.

Right now in #CRE, we are just getting into the document extraction parts of AI.

If there is one thing tech and #CRE that should make you stay up and worry about your #CRE existence it’s AI.

The one thing #CRE has going for it is that’s there are far bigger issues that AI will need and want to solve first.

So you’re safe….but if you are of a certain age….what will the future and AI bring?

Change that you and I may not even be able to comprehend!

So…I Rant Because I Can.

And…I Rant Because I Want To.

But… I Rant Because That’s What YOU Want!

 

+1 See You Somewhere Soon!

 

 

 

 

 

Duke Long

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