Way back in the old days (2015) I sat down and did a bit of speculation about what might be coming ahead for #CRE and the technology around it.
So let’s take a look at the 7 and see how I am doing so far.
1. Over half of the 50 companies at CRETech Intersect will not exist in 3 years.
Well, how easy is this to call. It might be more than half. Yes, some have gone on to raise some big money and push their companies farther, BUT name the companies from that 50 who have gained serious market share or even created a strong customer base? Not too many. One other thing, all that big tech investment has returned how much money to the investors TODAY? ZERO??? ZERO!! ZERO…….. So far!
2. There will and has to be a major M&A or roll up for any of the other companies that don’t fail to survive.
Still a bit too early to call. Yes, there have been a few. Floored and Matterport come to mind. Ten-X basically got bought. Think with me for a bit. Can you name any more? There has to be. What has happened is that the companies who are still in are raising a HUGE amount of money to try and survive. It’s not uncommon to hear 10-20-50-75 million dropped just about every week. I have an interesting question. Who buys these companies and at what realistic price?
3. The companies that understand what the “built environment ” is and exploit that will be able to sustain because…
BOOM! nailed this one. The built environment is flat out killing it. Big $$$$ and companies solving real-world problems. Everything from BIM to robotics to data and construction, logistics, HVAC, and on and on. And it can only get better! As I said back then, “because that’s where most of the money can and will be made. It’s 65-70% of all commercial real estate”.
4. At least 5 of the major building owners /REIT’s will form a technical alliance.
Well, this is an almost nailed it. It seems with the kind of money that some of these companies have the want to do their own thinking. I get that and why not. Brookfield is doing their thing. Silverstein is doing their thing among many other well-known building owners. Colliers, CBRE, JLL, Cush Wake and Newmark all have their bets in and are going in even more. Will this ultimately lead to more integration and collaboration? Yes, yes it will.
5.#CRE #Tech will no longer be seen as an outlier to not only the technology industry but also the commercial real estate sector.
Are you kidding me? Nailed this one! How many Trillions of dollars of hard assets and how much of the world GDP is #CRE? We’ve known this since like forever. The BIG $$ is just now getting in, well they have always been in but how about spending a few billion on some #CRE R&D? Smart play! Finally!
6. Property management and services will lead the way for all commercial real estate tech followed closely by the Capital Markets and then Corp Real Estate.
I’m calling this one a yes. We are still growing this up and out but I do have one word that will simplify this for all three categories. DATA!
7. BlockChain Protocol.
Well, how many words have been written about this in the last few years? Kabillions! But we are still just starting. Notice how the hype ebbs and flows? It’s quite right now and I think there is going to be more shake out to come. Maybe a few people need to get thrown………exposed for what they are. I’ve said this in various forms more than once, “what happens when all the hard asset owners and the BIG $$$ decide to get in?” Yea, that’s where I’m trying to be. Who will be the first #CRE BlockChain Billionaire?
So 7 predictions. Let’s count. I have 4 for a yes, and 3 that are still to be determined. The way I do the maths that equals 100% right.
I Made 7 Bold #CRE #Tech Predictions And Said Am I Ever Wrong. So, How Did I Do?
+1 It’s hard to be humble!