A Black Swan Moment For Commercial Real Estate?

A Black Swan Moment For Commercial Real Estate?

A Little Reference.

I wrote something a while back that asked  “where will you be when we have the black swan moment in commercial real estate?”

To quickly sum it up I defined that as singular moment when the data created by a commercial real estate location becomes more valuable than the location itself.

How realistic does that sound?

Are we near that point now or is it just an unrealistic dream.

Microsoft seems to think that they may be well on their way to creating a smart building that will do just that.

But what if it does not occur?

Better yet what if it has already happened and we did not see it?

Part of the definition of a black swan moment is that it has to be observed.

Maybe we are observing small black swan moments in commercial real estate right now and don’t even realize it.

And by that I mean……

It is not just the data becoming a valuable commodity alone.

It is defining the location not just by data but also by its use.

It is the location as an anchor within the community.

It is the location enhancing the community.

It is the location helping define the quality of that community.

Sharing is caring?

Commercial real estate is defining communities…….by sharing.

Commercial real estate by definition is location + data.

Data + location + sharing = commercial real estate black swam moments.

Every day every minute every second.

Black swan moments for commercial real estate are happening right now.

Right in front of your eyes!





Duke Long


  • Thus has it ever been. This is why the commercial real estate game is endlessly fascinating – something is ALWAYS changing, either with the location, the data or the players involved – due to demographic shifts, the economy, the climate, the owner, the user, the lender, technology, social & cultural trends, etc., etc., etc. At the risk of offending my friends who are fantasy football fanatics, that is child’s play compared to the sport of real men and women – commercial real estate! HOOOAAHH!

  • “when the data created by a commercial real estate location becomes more valuable than the location itself”

    But who will possess that value? The owners of the asset, the occupiers or some other third parties. If the latter, what’s the point of being a real estate investor if the added value is accumulated elsewhere.

    Following your logic, we’ll end up with super owner/managers who can merchandise the data (say, CBRE), super occupiers (Regus) who can maximise the user experience, super technology providers (Johnson Controls) and super consultants who’ll have to come up with bright ideas to sell to one costituency or another.

    The trouble with data, though, is that it’s hard to keep a lid on it to maintain a commanding position.. What’s the equivalent of location, location, location in RE data? Monopoly, monopoly, monopoly – and nobody likes the sound of that.